Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Social contacts patterns relevant to the transmission of infectious diseases in Suzhou, China following the COVID-19 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected human social contact patterns, but there is limited understanding regarding the post-pandemic social contact patterns. Our objective is to quantitatively assess social contact patterns in Suzhou post-COVID-19. METHODS: We employed a diary design and conducted social contact surveys from June to October 2023, utilizing paper questionnaires. A generalized linear model was utilized to analyze the relationship between individual contacts and covariates. We examined the proportions of contact type, location, duration, and frequency. Additionally, age-related mixed matrices were established. RESULTS: The participants reported an average of 11.51 (SD 5.96) contact numbers and a total of 19.78 (SD 20.94) contact numbers per day, respectively. The number of contacts was significantly associated with age, household size, and the type of week. Compared to the 0-9 age group, those in the 10-19 age group reported a higher number of contacts (IRR = 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.24), while participants aged 20 and older reported fewer (IRR range: 0.54-0.67). Larger households (5 or more) reported more contacts (IRR = 1.09, CI: 1.01-1.18) and fewer contacts were reported on weekends (IRR = 0.95, CI: 0.90-0.99). School had the highest proportion of contact durations exceeding 4 h (49.5%) and daily frequencies (90.4%), followed by home and workplace. The contact patterns exhibited clear age-assortative mixing, with Q indices of 0.27 and 0.28. CONCLUSIONS: We assessed the characteristics of social contact patterns in Suzhou, which are essential for parameterizing models of infectious disease transmission. The high frequency and intensity of contacts among school-aged children should be given special attention, making school intervention policies a crucial component in controlling infectious disease transmission.

Persistence and Variation of the Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Spectrum of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Analysis of National Surveillance Among Children and Adolescents From 2018 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Beyond the direct effect of COVID-19 infection on young people, the wider impact of the pandemic on other infectious diseases remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess changes in the incidence and mortality of 42 notifiable infectious diseases during the pandemic among children and adolescents in China, compared with prepandemic levels. METHODS: The Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China was used to detect new cases and fatalities among individuals aged 5-22 years across 42 notifiable infectious diseases spanning from 2018 to 2021. These infectious diseases were categorized into 5 groups: respiratory, gastrointestinal and enterovirus, sexually transmitted and blood-borne, zoonotic, and vector-borne diseases. Each year (2018-2021) was segmented into 4 phases: phase 1 (January 1-22), phase 2 (January 23-April 7), phase 3 (April 8-August 31), and phase 4 (September 1-December 31) according to the varying intensities of pandemic restrictive measures in 2020. Generalized linear models were applied to assess the change in the incidence and mortality within each disease category, using 2018 and 2019 as the reference. RESULTS: A total of 4,898,260 incident cases and 3701 deaths were included. The overall incidence of notifiable infectious diseases decreased sharply during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) compared with prepandemic levels (2018 and 2019), and then rebounded in 2021, particularly in South China. Across the past 4 years, the number of deaths steadily decreased. The incidence of diseases rebounded differentially by the pandemic phase. For instance, although seasonal influenza dominated respiratory diseases in 2019, it showed a substantial decline during the pandemic (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.50), which persisted until 2021 (percent change in phase 4 2021: 1.02, 95% CI 0.74-1.41). The incidence of gastrointestinal and enterovirus diseases decreased by 33.6% during 2020 but rebounded by 56.9% in 2021, mainly driven by hand, foot, and mouth disease (percent change in phase 3 2021: 1.28, 95% CI 1.17-1.41) and infectious diarrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.22, 95% CI 1.17-1.28). Sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases were restrained during the first year of 2021 but rebounded quickly in 2021, mainly driven by syphilis (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40) and gonorrhea (percent change in phase 3 2020: 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.16). Zoonotic diseases were not dampened by the pandemic but continued to increase across the study period, mainly due to brucellosis (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.16). Vector-borne diseases showed a continuous decline during 2020, dominated by hemorrhagic fever (percent change in phase 2 2020: 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.87), but rebounded in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a marked decline in notifiable infectious diseases in Chinese children and adolescents. These effects were not sustained, with evidence of a rebound to prepandemic levels by late 2021. To effectively address the postpandemic resurgence of infectious diseases in children and adolescents, it will be essential to maintain disease surveillance and strengthen the implementation of various initiatives. These include extending immunization programs, prioritizing the management of sexually transmitted infections, continuing feasible nonpharmaceutical intervention projects, and effectively managing imported infections.

A risk-induced dispersal strategy of the infected population for a disease-free state in the SIS epidemic model.

This article proposes a dispersal strategy for infected individuals in a spatial susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. The presence of spatial heterogeneity and the movement of individuals play crucial roles in determining the persistence and eradication of infectious diseases. To capture these dynamics, we introduce a moving strategy called risk-induced dispersal (RID) for infected individuals in a continuous-time patch model of the SIS epidemic. First, we establish a continuous-time n-patch model and verify that the RID strategy is an effective approach for attaining a disease-free state. This is substantiated through simulations conducted on 7-patch models and analytical results derived from 2-patch models. Second, we extend our analysis by adapting the patch model into a diffusive epidemic model. This extension allows us to explore further the impact of the RID movement strategy on disease transmission and control. We validate our results through simulations, which provide the effects of the RID dispersal strategy.

Mortality Associated with Priority Diseases in Flood-Affected Areas Using District Health Information System (DHIS2) During September-December 2022: Pakistan Experience.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the burden of communicable diseases and characterize the most reported infections during public health emergency of floods in Pakistan. METHODS: The study's design is a descriptive trend analysis. The study utilized the disease data reported to District Health Information System (DHIS2) for the 12 most frequently reported priority diseases under the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) system in Pakistan. RESULTS: In total, there were 1,532,963 suspected cases during August to December 2022 in flood-affected districts (n = 75) across Pakistan; Sindh Province reported the highest number of cases (n = 692,673) from 23 districts, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) (n = 568,682) from 17 districts, Balochistan (n = 167,215) from 32 districts, and Punjab (n = 104,393) from 3 districts. High positivity was reported for malaria (79,622/201,901; 39.4%), followed by acute diarrhea (non-cholera) (23/62; 37.1%), hepatitis A and E (47/252; 18.7%), and dengue (603/3245; 18.6%). The crude mortality rate was 11.9 per 10 000 population (1824/1,532,963 [deaths/cases]). CONCLUSION: The study identified acute respiratory infection, acute diarrhea, malaria, and skin diseases as the most prevalent diseases. This suggests that preparedness efforts and interventions targeting these diseases should be prioritized in future flood response plans. The study highlights the importance of strengthening the IDSR as a Disease Early Warning System through the implementation of the DHIS2.

The burden of infectious diseases throughout and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023) and Russo-Ukrainian war migration.

Understanding how the infectious disease burden was affected throughout the COVID-19 pandemic is pivotal to identifying potential hot spots and guiding future mitigation measures. Therefore, our study aimed to analyze the changes in the rate of new cases of Poland's most frequent infectious diseases during the entire COVID-19 pandemic and after the influx of war refugees from Ukraine. We performed a registry-based population-wide study in Poland to analyze the changes in the rate of 24 infectious disease cases from 2020 to 2023 and compared them to the prepandemic period (2016-2019). Data were collected from publicly archived datasets of the Epimeld database published by national epidemiological authority institutions. The rate of most of the studied diseases (66.6%) revealed significantly negative correlations with the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the majority of infectious diseases, it substantially decreased in 2020 (in case of 83%) and 2021 (63%), following which it mostly rebounded to the prepandemic levels and, in some cases, exceeded them in 2023 when the exceptionally high annual rates of new cases of scarlet fever, Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, HIV infections, syphilis, gonococcal infections, and tick-borne encephalitis were noted. The rate of Clostridioides difficile enterocolitis was two-fold higher than before the pandemic from 2021 onward. The rate of Legionnaires' disease in 2023 also exceeded the prepandemic threshold, although this was due to a local outbreak unrelated to lifted COVID-19 pandemic restrictions or migration of war refugees. The influx of war migrants from Ukraine could impact the epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases. The present analysis indicates that continued efforts are needed to prevent COVID-19 from overwhelming healthcare systems again and decreasing the control over the burden of other infectious diseases. It also identifies the potential tipping points that require additional mitigation measures, which are also discussed in the paper, to avoid escalation in the future.

Diagnostic stewardship in infectious diseases: a scoping review.

Introduction. The term 'diagnostic stewardship' is relatively new, with a recent surge in its use within the literature. Despite its increasing popularity, a precise definition remains elusive. Various attempts have been made to define it, with some viewing it as an integral part of antimicrobial stewardship. The World Health Organization offers a broad definition, emphasizing the importance of timely, accurate diagnostics. However, inconsistencies in the use of this term still persist, necessitating further clarification.Gap Statement. There are currently inconsistencies in the definition of diagnostic stewardship used within the academic literature.Aim. This scoping review aims to categorize the use of diagnostic stewardship approaches and define this approach by identifying common characteristics and factors of its use within the literature.Methodology. This scoping review undertook a multi-database search from date of inception until October 2022. Any observational or experimental study where the authors define the intervention to be diagnostic stewardship from any clinical area was included. Screening of all papers was undertaken by a single reviewer with 10% verification by a second reviewer. Data extraction was undertaken by a single reviewer using a pre-piloted form. Given the wide variation in study design and intervention outcomes, a narrative synthesis approach was applied. Studies were clustered around common diagnostic stewardship interventions where appropriate.Results. After duplicate removal, a total of 1310 citations were identified, of which, after full-paper screening, 105 studies were included in this scoping review. The classification of an intervention as taking a diagnostic stewardship approach is a relatively recent development, with the first publication in this field dating back to 2017. The majority of research in this area has been conducted within the USA, with very few studies undertaken outside this region. Visual inspection of the citation map reveals that the current evidence base is interconnected, with frequent references to each other's work. The interventions commonly adopt a restrictive approach, utilizing hard and soft stops within the pre-analytical phase to restrict access to testing. Upon closer examination of the outcomes, it becomes evident that there is a predominant focus on reducing the number of tests rather than enhancing the current test protocol. This is further reflected in the limited number of studies that report on test performance (including protocol improvements, specificity and sensitivity).Conclusion. Diagnostic stewardship seems to have deviated from its intended course, morphing into a rather rudimentary instrument wielded not to enhance but to constrict the scope of testing. Despite the World Health Organization's advocacy for an ideology that promotes a more comprehensive approach to quality improvement, it may be more appropriate to consider alternative regional narratives when categorizing these types of quality improvement interventions.

Modelling the impact of precaution on disease dynamics and its evolution.

In this paper, we introduce the notion of practically susceptible population, which is a fraction of the biologically susceptible population. Assuming that the fraction depends on the severity of the epidemic and the public's level of precaution (as a response of the public to the epidemic), we propose a general framework model with the response level evolving with the epidemic. We firstly verify the well-posedness and confirm the disease's eventual vanishing for the framework model under the assumption that the basic reproduction number R 0 < 1 . For R 0 > 1 , we study how the behavioural response evolves with epidemics and how such an evolution impacts the disease dynamics. More specifically, when the precaution level is taken to be the instantaneous best response function in literature, we show that the endemic dynamic is convergence to the endemic equilibrium; while when the precaution level is the delayed best response, the endemic dynamic can be either convergence to the endemic equilibrium, or convergence to a positive periodic solution. Our derivation offers a justification/explanation for the best response used in some literature. By replacing "adopting the best response" with "adapting toward the best response", we also explore the adaptive long-term dynamics.

Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks with node's activity and attractiveness.

The metapopulation network model is a mathematical framework used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals' mobility. In this paper, we develop a time-varying network model in which the activity of a population is correlated with its attractiveness in mobility. By studying the spreading dynamics of the SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered)-type disease in different correlated networks based on the proposed model, we theoretically derive the mobility threshold and numerically observe that increasing the correction between activity and attractiveness results in a reduced mobility threshold but suppresses the fraction of infected subpopulations. It also introduces greater heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of infected individuals. Additionally, we investigate the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the spread of epidemics in different correlation networks. Our results show that the simultaneous implementation of self-isolation and self-protection is more effective in negatively correlated networks than that in positively correlated or non-correlated networks. Both self-isolation and self-protection strategies enhance the mobility threshold and, thus, slow down the spread of the epidemic. However, the effectiveness of each strategy in reducing the fraction of infected subpopulations varies in different correlated networks. Self-protection is more effective in positively correlated networks, whereas self-isolation is more effective in negatively correlated networks. Our study will provide insights into epidemic prevention and control in large-scale time-varying metapopulation networks.

Why We Need to Change How We Talk About Infectious Disease.

This article builds a case for raising occupational consciousness by critically questioning ahistorical and apolitical uses of battle language, especially when referring to infectious diseases. Words such as invasion, colonization, and resistance are particularly ethically troubling, and this article considers why the social practices our language brings about matter in health care. Dynamic relationships among humans and microbes, as well as metaphor, are considered here in historical context and through the lens of Derrida's portmanteau hostipitality, which invites reconsideration of an infectious disease notion of host and how conceptions of hospitality have been institutionalized and commodified. This article argues that language used in infectious disease care settings should be informed by coexistence as a guiding value of clinical and ethical relevance.

Medical knowledge of ChatGPT in public health, infectious diseases, COVID-19 pandemic, and vaccines: multiple choice questions examination based performance.

Background: At the beginning of the year 2023, the Chatbot Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (ChatGPT) gained remarkable attention from the public. There is a great discussion about ChatGPT and its knowledge in medical sciences, however, literature is lacking to evaluate the ChatGPT knowledge level in public health. Therefore, this study investigates the knowledge of ChatGPT in public health, infectious diseases, the COVID-19 pandemic, and its vaccines. Methods: Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) bank was established. The question's contents were reviewed and confirmed that the questions were appropriate to the contents. The MCQs were based on the case scenario, with four sub-stems, with a single correct answer. From the MCQs bank, 60 MCQs we selected, 30 MCQs were from public health, and infectious diseases topics, 17 MCQs were from the COVID-19 pandemic, and 13 MCQs were on COVID-19 vaccines. Each MCQ was manually entered, and tasks were given to determine the knowledge level of ChatGPT on MCQs. Results: Out of a total of 60 MCQs in public health, infectious diseases, the COVID-19 pandemic, and vaccines, ChatGPT attempted all the MCQs and obtained 17/30 (56.66%) marks in public health, infectious diseases, 15/17 (88.23%) in COVID-19, and 12/13 (92.30%) marks in COVID-19 vaccines MCQs, with an overall score of 44/60 (73.33%). The observed results of the correct answers in each section were significantly higher (p = 0.001). The ChatGPT obtained satisfactory grades in all three domains of public health, infectious diseases, and COVID-19 pandemic-allied examination. Conclusion: ChatGPT has satisfactory knowledge of public health, infectious diseases, the COVID-19 pandemic, and its vaccines. In future, ChatGPT may assist medical educators, academicians, and healthcare professionals in providing a better understanding of public health, infectious diseases, the COVID-19 pandemic, and vaccines.

Scenario-based assessment of emergency management of urban infectious disease outbreaks.

Infectious diseases pose a severe threat to human health and are accompanied by significant economic losses. Studies of urban outbreaks of infectious diseases are diverse. However, previous studies have neglected the identification of critical events and the evaluation of scenario-based modeling of urban infectious disease outbreak emergency management mechanisms. In this paper, we aim to conduct an empirical analysis and scenario extrapolation using a questionnaire survey of 18 experts, based on the CIA-ISM method and scenario theory, to identify the key factors influencing urban infectious disease outbreaks. Subsequently, we evaluate the effectiveness of urban infectious disease outbreak emergency management mechanisms. Finally, we compare and verify the actual situation of COVID-19 in China, drawing the following conclusions and recommendations. (1) The scenario-based urban infectious disease emergency management model can effectively replicate the development of urban infectious diseases. (2) The establishment of an emergency command center and the isolation and observation of individuals exposed to infectious diseases are crucial factors in the emergency management of urban outbreaks of infectious disease.

An immuno-epidemiological model with waning immunity after infection or vaccination.

In epidemics, waning immunity is common after infection or vaccination of individuals. Immunity levels are highly heterogeneous and dynamic. This work presents an immuno-epidemiological model that captures the fundamental dynamic features of immunity acquisition and wane after infection or vaccination and analyzes mathematically its dynamical properties. The model consists of a system of first order partial differential equations, involving nonlinear integral terms and different transfer velocities. Structurally, the equation may be interpreted as a Fokker-Planck equation for a piecewise deterministic process. However, unlike the usual models, our equation involves nonlocal effects, representing the infectivity of the whole environment. This, together with the presence of different transfer velocities, makes the proved existence of a solution novel and nontrivial. In addition, the asymptotic behavior of the model is analyzed based on the obtained qualitative properties of the solution. An optimal control problem with objective function including the total number of deaths and costs of vaccination is explored. Numerical results describe the dynamic relationship between contact rates and optimal solutions. The approach can contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of immune responses at population level and may guide public health policies.

Clonal structure and the specificity of vaccine-induced T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein.

Adenovirus vaccines, particularly the COVID-19 Ad5-nCoV adenovirus vaccine, have emerged as promising tools in the fight against infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the structure of the T cell response to the Spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus used in the COVID-19 Ad5-nCoV adenoviral vaccine in a phase 3 clinical trial (NCT04540419). In 69 participants, we collected peripheral blood samples at four time points after vaccination or placebo injection. Sequencing of T cell receptor repertoires from Spike-stimulated T cell cultures at day 14 from 17 vaccinated revealed a more diverse CD4+ T cell repertoire compared to CD8+. Nevertheless, CD8+ clonotypes accounted for more than half of the Spike-specific repertoire. Our longitudinal analysis showed a peak T cell response at day 14, followed by a decline until month 6. Remarkably, multiple T cell clonotypes persisted for at least 6 months after vaccination, as demonstrated by ex vivo stimulation. Examination of CDR3 regions revealed homologous sequences in both CD4+ and CD8+ clonotypes, with major CD8+ clonotypes sharing high similarity with annotated sequences specific for the NYNYLYRLF peptide, suggesting potential immunodominance. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the immunogenicity of the Ad5-nCoV adenoviral vaccine and highlights its ability to induce robust and durable T cell responses. These findings provide valuable insight into the efficacy of the vaccine against COVID-19 and provide critical information for ongoing efforts to control infectious diseases.

An association between PM2.5 components and respiratory infectious diseases: A China's mainland-based study.

The particulate matter with diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is an important risk factor for respiratory infectious diseases, such as scarlet fever, tuberculosis, and similar diseases. However, it is not clear which component of PM2.5 is more important for respiratory infectious diseases. Based on data from 31 provinces in mainland China obtained between 2013 and 2019, this study investigated the effects of different PM2.5 components, i.e., sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and organic matter (OM), and black carbon (BC), on respiratory infectious diseases incidence [pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), scarlet fever (SF), influenza, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and mumps]. Geographical probes and the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model were used to investigate correlations, single-component effects, joint effects, and interactions between components, and subgroup analysis was used to assess regional and temporal heterogeneity. The results of geographical probes showed that the chemical components of PM2.5 were associated with the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases. BKMR results showed that the five components of PM2.5 were the main factors affecting the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases (PIP>0.5). The joint effect of influenza and mumps by co-exposure to the components showed a significant positive correlation, and the exposure-response curve for a single component was approximately linear. And single-component modelling revealed that OM and BC may be the most important factors influencing the incidence of respiratory infections. Moreover, respiratory infectious diseases in southern and southwestern China may be less affected by the PM2.5 component. This study is the first to explore the relationship between different components of PM2.5 and the incidence of five common respiratory infectious diseases in 31 provinces of mainland China, which provides a certain theoretical basis for future research.

Iran's research prioritization: Are we meeting the goals? A study based on clinical trial registry data.

The prioritization of research topics in the health domain is a critical step toward channelling efforts and resources into areas that have received less attention. The objective of this study is to evaluate the implementation of research priorities determined at the national level within Iran for the period spanning five years between 2009 and 2013. We extracted the required data from the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials (IRCT) website. Then we conducted a matching process between the titles of trials registered in the IRCT until December 3rd, 2013, and the list of national health research priorities in the domains of communicable and non-communicable diseases. The latter was compiled and regulated by the Research and Technology Deputy of the Ministry of Health since 2008. Out of the total 5,049 clinical trials registered in IRCT, 92.3% were carried out within the domain of non-communicable diseases, while 6.1% pertained to the field of communicable diseases and the remaining 1.3% in other fields. 56.4% of the clinical trials conducted in the field of communicable diseases and 32.8% of those conducted in the field of non-communicable diseases were consistent with the research priorities determined in these two fields. During the five-year period of the prioritization goal, there was no significant improvement in adherence to the list of priorities compared to the previous five-year period. Furthermore, certain priorities were neglected within both areas during these periods. It is possible to evaluate the effectiveness of research prioritization using the data obtained from the registration centers of clinical trials. Our study has revealed that the list of priorities has not garnered adequate attention from the research community within the country. Hence, remedial measures are imperative to ensure the priorities are given more attention after publication.